San Antonio Fix & Flip in 2026: Underwriting Reality vs. Old Assumptions
By Reginald Benjamin, Business Development Manager · Wind River Lending·February 2026
Let's be straight about where the San Antonio market is right now: it has slowed down. On Orchard's latest snapshot, median days on market is 80.85 (last 30 days), up from 60.35 a year ago.
If you're underwriting flip deals with 2022 speed assumptions, you're taking unnecessary risk. In a slower market, optimistic assumptions on sell timing, ARV, and margin are exactly what kills returns.
That said, deals are still being funded. The borrowers getting funded now are the ones using current assumptions: soft purchase pricing, conservative ARV, realistic carry, and a disciplined exit strategy. The market punishes optimism. It rewards preparation.
Market Context — February 2026 (Orchard, last 30 days)
San Antonio citywide median DOM is now 80.85 days versus 60.35 on the same window last year. Translation for underwriting: assume a longer hold and confirm the deal still works with conservative assumptions.
Three ZIP Codes Where the Numbers Can Still Work (and how to underwrite each)
Orchard data, February 2026. DOM values shown as last-30-day snapshots.
78212
Tobin Hill / Monte Vista / Near Northside
Median DOM
91
from 53 YoY
Still a strong fundamentals pocket (walkability plus proximity to core corridors), but this is not a 38-day market. Underwrite this as a disciplined operator: match finish levels to the comp set, keep ARV assumptions conservative, and do not shortcut the sales timeline.
78230
Northside / Medical Center
Median DOM
59
from 64 YoY
This is the most stable profile in the set: demand is still supported and comps are generally usable. The playbook is straightforward—budget 60 to 90 days of holding and let purchase price drive your margin, not exit optimism.
78232
Far North / Stone Oak-adjacent buyer profile
Median DOM
81
from 42 YoY
This area will punish loose underwriting. Buyers have options, and the pace has weakened sharply. Keep ARV conservative, underwrite for a slower exit, and only target finishes that match what the local buyer segment is actually paying for.
What a slower market actually means for your deal
Longer DOM cuts both ways. On the buy side, it gives borrowers leverage—sellers are more willing to negotiate than they were when market velocity was higher. On the sell side, it means your finished property may sit longer before a clean offer.
In practical terms, budget 60 to 90 days of holding costs and test your loan terms at that speed. If the model only works with a 30-day exit, the risk is too high for current conditions.
Bottom Line
San Antonio is slower than it was, and older assumptions no longer apply. But slower doesn't mean dead. It just means the funded deals are those built on current math: soft purchase terms, conservative ARV, full carry, disciplined scope and finish execution, and a backup plan if local comps are soft.
If your deal can survive this environment, it can still be funded and can still produce returns. If it depends on speed it won't.
Reginald Benjamin
Business Development Manager · Wind River Lending
San Antonio fix & flip lending — private capital, fast closes, real results.
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