San Antonio Fix & Flip in 2026: Where the Deal Math Holds Up
By Reginald Benjamin, Business Development Manager · Wind River Lending·February 2026
Let's be straight about where the San Antonio market is right now: it has slowed down. Median days on market across the metro has climbed to the 75–90 day range — among the highest in the country. If you're underwriting a fix & flip deal using the assumptions from 2022 or even 2024, you're going to get burned.
That said, deals are still getting funded and investors are still making money. The ones doing it right have adjusted their math: softer purchase prices (buyers have leverage now — use it), conservative ARV, accurate holding cost projections, and a disciplined exit. The market punishes optimism right now. It rewards preparation.
Here are the three zip codes where the fundamentals are still strong enough to build a deal — along with what the current DOM data actually tells you about how to underwrite each one.
Market Context — February 2026
San Antonio's metro-wide median DOM has risen to 75–89 days, up from 73 days last year. This is a buyer's market. That means more negotiating room on purchase price — which can actually improve your deal math — but it also means budgeting realistically for how long your finished product will sit before it sells.
Three Zip Codes Where the Numbers Still Work
Based on current MLS data. DOM figures sourced from Orchard, February 2026.
78212
Tobin Hill / Monte Vista / Near Northside
Median DOM
~38 days
↓ Trending faster vs. last year
The tightest market of the three. Walkability premium near the Pearl and downtown corridor is holding up — buyers are still showing up for move-in-ready finishes here. Renovation comps are available. Watch for historic district overlays that can affect scope and timeline. Of these three zip codes, 78212 gives you the strongest read on buyer demand right now.
78230
Northside / Medical Center
Median DOM
~58 days
↓ Slightly faster vs. last year
Medical center proximity keeps a floor under demand — healthcare workers and traveling professionals create a reliable buyer base. The market has softened but the comp pool is still workable: plenty of renovated sales in the 1960s–70s SFR stock to anchor your appraisal. Budget for 60+ days of holding costs in your deal math — do not underwrite to a 30-day flip timeline.
78232
Stone Oak / Far North
Median DOM
~81 days
↑ Significantly slower vs. last year
This is the most cautious call of the three. DOM is up 80% year-over-year — buyers have options and they know it. The ARV ceiling is real (school district, larger square footage, family buyer profile), but you need to model 90+ days of hold and price your exit conservatively. Deals that pencil on paper can bleed out if the finish level or pricing doesn't match buyer expectations in this ZIP.
What a Slower Market Actually Means for Your Deal
Longer DOM cuts both ways. On the buy side, it's an advantage — sellers who listed at 2022 prices are now negotiating. A disciplined offer below list can unlock purchase prices that make the deal work even with conservative ARV. On the sell side, you need to budget for the reality: your finished product may sit 45–75 days before you get a clean offer.
Run your deal with 90 days of holding costs. If it still pencils at that timeline — interest carry, taxes, insurance, utilities — then the deal is real. If it only works if you sell in 30 days, it's not a deal yet.
When Sold Data Is Thin — Check Rental
Not every property in San Antonio is going to have a rich pool of recently renovated comparable sales within a 2-mile radius. When you hit a zone with limited sold data, that's a signal — not a dead end.
Pull rental comps. Run the DSCR numbers. If the property cash flows at market rent, it may be better held as a rental than flipped — and in a slower resale market, that's increasingly a legitimate primary exit. At Wind River, we strongly recommend that borrowers targeting a rental exit pre-qualify for a DSCR refinance before they close the hard money loan. That way there's a clear path off the bridge and into permanent financing — reducing risk for everyone.
How to Run ARV Correctly Right Now
In a softening market, comp discipline matters more, not less. Here's the methodology I recommend to every agent and investor who sends us a deal:
Use like-for-like renovation comps
Only use recently renovated comparable sales — not new construction and not unrenovated homes. The appraiser must match what your finished product will look like.
Stay within a 2-mile radius
Tighter radius = stronger appraisal. If the market is thin and you need to go wider, be prepared to justify it to the underwriter. Stick close first.
Active solds, not active listings
Listings are just asking prices. Closed sales prove what buyers actually paid. In a slower market, sellers are cutting prices — use closed data only to set ARV.
Look at how long your comps sat
In a 60–80 day DOM market, comps that closed in under 45 days tell you something important — those properties were priced right and finished right. That's your target. Comps that sat 90+ days signal price resistance; use them only as a floor, never a ceiling.
MAO Formula
(ARV × 70%) − Rehab = Max Allowable Offer
Run this before you write an offer. In a slower market, staying at or below the MAO gives you the cushion to absorb holding costs and still exit profitably. Use our Deal Calculator to model it out in seconds.
Bottom Line
The San Antonio market is slower than it was, and anyone telling you otherwise isn't looking at the data. But slower doesn't mean dead — it means the deals that get funded now are the ones built on honest numbers. Soft purchase price, conservative ARV, real holding cost projections, clean finish level matched to the buyer profile.
If that's how you're building your deals, we can fund them in 7–10 days. If the numbers don't work yet, we'd rather tell you that up front than let you close into a deal that doesn't exit cleanly.
Reginald Benjamin
Business Development Manager · Wind River Lending
San Antonio fix & flip lending — private capital, fast closes, real results.
Ready to move on a deal?
Term sheet in 24 hours on qualified files. Submit now or text Reginald directly.